4 August 2026
A weekly cycle is a swing you can measure
Two troughs and the crest between them are enough to start. A feeling about the trend is not a count.
Field notes
Pages from the Silom desk.
These notes stay with the work of identifying market cycles: how a weekly swing is marked, how a seasonal window differs from a longer swing, and what belongs on the page before the open.
18 July 2026
A seasonal window is not the intermediate cycle
A market can firm in the same months most years and still be late in a longer swing. Write both lengths or you will mix them up.
2 June 2026
Four lines to write before the market opens
Swing age, last completed length, place versus the last crest and trough, and the mark that cancels the count. Write them before the first print, not after.
11 May 2026
Accumulation is a range with a job
A pause rests. Accumulation spends time absorbing supply. You cannot see the orders, but you can see whether a break under the range was retired.